There isn’t much to be optimistic about in the news. The International Monetary Fund has just released its October World Economic Outlook. It identifies five “thorny” issues impacting growth and it will come as little surprise that top of the list is the cost of living crisis with 88% of the economists interviewed predicting food prices will continue to rise in the year ahead (as will energy prices). They also listed tariffs; debt-riddled governments; the mounting cost of borrowing and, of course, the unknown that is AI. No mention of climate change and war, which some commenters have understandably called out.
New World Order
I’ve just arrived in Ghana from Singapore where the Raffles Family Office Summit left me full of ideas and optimism – something we could perhaps all do with a dose of. The leaders who spoke didn’t avoid the realities of today’s economic rollercoaster; but explained how they are planning on riding it.
Others are pretending they’re not on board. Goh Chok Tong, Emeritus Senior Minister, Republic of Singapore, talked about how many leaders in the West are clinging to the notion that the world will remain as it has been since the 1940s.
They have recognised that Asia offers significant opportunities but don’t like it that these “emerging” nations are queuing up for the ride or are already in the car next to them. They are also fearful of their adaptability. China remains the world’s second largest economy; and has offset a softer US market relationship (thanks to the erratic nature of Trump’s tariffs) by pushing harder into Asia, Europe and other markets.
Setting the agenda
These nations are not waiting for permission to strike out. I see this in the meeting of minds when Asian and African leaders collaborate. They are writing their own narratives; and are pushing back against decades, if not centuries, of being told what they are and where their place is in the world order. This is not to say that they don’t want to work with all nations, but they are pushing to set the agenda.
I wonder if this has fostered a spark of shared experience between leaders from both continents, which has become the basis on which trusting relationships can be built. They are aware of narratives being forced upon them and are fighting to rewrite them.
It could equally be an awareness that there are a vast amount of possibilities out there for leaders who accept the world transformation is well under way. And if they collaborate, these increase. There have already been decades of watching and learning. Jean-Guy Afrika, Chief Executive Officer, Rwanda Development Board, talked about how his government has drawn inspiration from structured models in countries including Singapore and Mauritius. It saw, tweaked and then adopted key principles relating to safety, predictability and the creation of a reliable regulatory environment. He also shared that Rwanda recorded a quarterly growth of 9.4% last year and annual growth of approximately 7-8% over the past five years.
Shared values
From conversations I have had in Kigali, Hong Kong and Singapore, it also seems that the leaders across these two continents who I admire share many values. Yes, I acknowledge that this reflects that I am drawn to certain people; but I have heard emphasis on the same words and phrases: Legacy; resilience; trust; accountability; shared ownership; laying the foundations; infrastructure; human capital and sustainability.
RFO CEO, Chi-man Kwan, and Kinapara Coulibaly, CEO of BNETD, both talked powerfully about legacy; and how they are building infrastructure (whether bricks and mortar or educational opportunities), which will outlive them. They talk about planning for decades not quarters. Both leaders are capable of looking beyond not only their tenure in role but even their time of holding any influence at all. They are nurturing their people and building them up to take over. Raffles is doing this not only for its employees but also its clients.
For me, this is how resilience gets embedded. Everything from blueprints to policies are created meticulously; but transformation is viewed as a continuum leaving room for innovation and adjustment. And people are given the tools to be able to be consistent but also reactive.
Looking forward
For nations clinging to keeping things as they have always been; run by politicians and CEOs focussed solely on their short tenures in power; resilience is so much harder. Boston Consulting Group just released an analysis of the five-year failure rate of US-listed companies over the past 50 years. The headline was that “the rate at which US companies disappear has more than halved since the turn of the millennium”.
However, state the analysts, it is nothing to do with company resilience. Instead, it is because “the listed population is smaller and pre-screened” and “government and central banks [have] kept the marginal firms alive”. The risks are being taken off-exchange. This is perhaps where more innovation is happening but where resilience is low.
For ventures who feel their risk rising, the analysts advise them to “use crises to look for opportunities”. This is what African businesses have been doing for decades. Rwanda hit rock bottom and then clawed its way back up, building a solid ladder and platforms to build upon as it climbed.
In Ghana this week, at Elevate Africa, I fully expect the Asia/ Africa axis to be a hot topic and I also expect many leaders will be sharing how they are building up their businesses’ – or even nation’s – resilience. No-one is immune to the twists and turns of the present climate; but the conversations, like in Singapore, will be hopeful and determined. Leaders who survive through crises hone their soft skills and see transformation as their life work. Yes, the current climate is tricky, but they know the rollercoaster ride will come to an end; and are already planning and executing what they want to happen next.
